Tamara, great attempt at making sense of what is happening in Europe. There is a third scenario, that is, in my opinion, more likely. My starting point is the definition of populism: a political doctrine that takes its cues more from the short-term popular problems than a long-term vision of social and economic policy. According to this (kind of personal) definition, all major political parties can nowadays be defined as 'populist'. There is very little hint of long-term strategic thinking in politics today. On the other hand, there is a compulsive and pathetic desire to be popular, and to monitor that popularity in real time, on social media or other platforms. UK and Italy are great examples of that: even the traditional parties are increasingly preoccupied with short-term consensus than a long-term vision. But also leaders parties in France, and Germany, although started with long term visions, have resorted to tactics more than strategy. Their leaders are TV stars, they are untouchable, they live in another universe, where they are either idealised or trashed. They are unaffected and very far from the 'territory' and any problem happening in real life is a chance for a new slogan, rather than an opportunity to improve the community.

So, my third scenario is a variation of your second one. The quality of politics won't change much, unfortunately, with the return to power of traditional parties. You chose two extreme examples, Poland and Hungary, where leading politicians are out of their minds. But I suspect that even if a more traditional way of doing politics would come back to rule in those countries, the eventual result will only be marginally better.

What we need is a new democratic system that would really change things, not new national parties.