Is the US labor market telling a story of change?

Luca Silipo

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5 min read

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Dec 6, 2022

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Although talks about an imminent recession are plentiful (and GDP contracted in 1H2022 already), the pace of hiring in the United States is still very strong. I speculate that this singularity is explained by a change in workers’ preferences (the so called ‘Great Resignation’). If this change is only temporary, then profit margins will drop in the short term and re-accelerate promptly in 2H2023. If not…