Luca Silipo
1 min readFeb 8, 2019

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Although I always like catastrophic scenarios I fail to see any logic behind this one. First, global debt is not as high as it was in 2008 and there has been substantial develeraging in western financial systems. The only (big) exception is China but a collapse of debt there would damage more the global economies rather than the global financial system (as capital controls still prevent the renminbi to circulate outside China). Second, a rush to a hard asset of the proportions to book evoke can only happen if it is part of a switch in systems, ie if the next monetary system would be based on that hard asset. The reality (and I have to add ‘unfortunately so’) there is today no currency alternative to the USD as a reserve value (SDRs are no alternative as, being it a basket currency, it will be equally debased if global central banks all print money!) so if central banks begin to print money like crazy the most likely scenario is that system will continue to absorb it. Inflation ensues that will ‘naturally’ abate debt, probably not doomsday.

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Luca Silipo
Luca Silipo

Written by Luca Silipo

I am an economist and author dedicated to finding applicable solutions to achieve social sustainability while preserving economic growth.

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